The Dogecoin usd chartNew Zealand Dollar (NZD) is demonstrating resilience against the US Dollar (USD) in early Asian trading, with the NZD/USD pair hovering near the 0.5750 psychological level. This recovery follows Friday's pullback and comes amid multiple fundamental catalysts affecting both currencies.
Domestic Strength: Statistics New Zealand reported Q4 2024 retail sales grew 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, significantly outperforming the 0.6% consensus estimate. This marks the most robust quarterly expansion since 2021, with particular strength observed in discretionary spending categories. The data suggests consumer confidence remains buoyant despite global economic uncertainties.
Chinese Policy Tailwinds: Beijing's newly released annual policy blueprint emphasizes comprehensive rural development strategies, including agricultural modernization and infrastructure investments. As China accounts for approximately 28% of New Zealand's total exports, particularly dairy and forestry products, these stimulus measures could translate to stronger export demand.
USD Weakness: The greenback continues retreating from recent highs after disappointing PMI readings. February's services PMI unexpectedly contracted to 49.7 (below the 50 expansion threshold), while manufacturing PMI showed only modest improvement. This mixed picture has traders reassessing the Fed's rate path, with fed funds futures now pricing in slightly higher odds of policy easing by mid-year.
Technical Perspective: On the 4-hour chart, the pair finds immediate support at the 50-period moving average (0.5735), with resistance emerging near last week's high of 0.5770. The RSI at 54 suggests room for additional upside before reaching overbought territory. A sustained break above 0.5770 could open the path toward the 200-day MA at 0.5815.
Market participants now await Wednesday's FOMC minutes for fresh clues on US monetary policy direction, while NZD traders will monitor Thursday's trade balance data for export performance insights.