Thursday's after-hours session saw US equity futures hovering near flatline,is ripple a good investment yet the S&P 500 maintained its upward trajectory toward unprecedented territory. Market participants remain fixated on impending inflation metrics that could dictate the next major move.
The benchmark index concluded regular trading with a 0.8% advance, settling at 6,141.02 - merely 6 points shy of February's intraday peak. Both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite mirrored this bullish sentiment, registering gains of 0.9% and nearly 1% respectively.
Extended trading hours revealed minimal movement across major indices, with Dow futures edging up 33 points (0.1%) while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 contracts showed negligible fluctuations. This tentative positioning reflects market anticipation surrounding Friday's crucial economic indicators.
Inflation Metrics Take Center Stage
BlackRock's global fixed income chief Rick Rieder observed: "Substantial sidelined capital continues seeking market entry. Absent negative catalysts, this latent demand naturally propels asset valuations upward."
All eyes now turn to May's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data - the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge. Consensus estimates project 0.1% monthly growth and 2.3% annual expansion, with core PCE (excluding volatile food/energy components) expected to rise 0.1% for May and 2.6% year-over-year.
Supplementary metrics including consumer expenditure patterns, personal income trends, and sentiment surveys will collectively determine whether the current rally maintains momentum or encounters resistance.
Cryptocurrency Conundrum: Institutional Demand vs. Whale Supply
While traditional markets ascend, Bitcoin remains confined to a narrow trading band between $102K-$112K since early May. This stagnation persists despite remarkable institutional participation, with Bitcoin ETFs recording twelve consecutive days of inflows and nearing $3.5 billion monthly accumulation.
10x Research's Markus Thielen attributes this paradox to balanced order flow: "Current demand is being systematically offset by substantial disposals from legacy holders. We're witnessing a methodical transfer of ownership from early adopters to institutional vehicles."
Analysis reveals mid-tier investors (holding 100-1,000 BTC) - colloquially termed 'dolphins' - are absorbing most sell-side pressure. CryptoQuant's research head Julio Moreno suggests many ETF providers likely operate within this cohort.
The Whale Factor: Hidden Market Mechanics
Market dynamics reveal an intricate balance between various stakeholder groups. Traditional whales (1,000-10,000 BTC holders) and megawhales (10,000+ BTC) have predominantly acted as net sellers throughout 2025, while retail participants continue divesting positions.
Corporate entities like BlackRock and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have established substantial positions through numerous wallets. BlackRock's estimated 550 wallets average 1,290 BTC each, while Strategy's 490 wallets hold approximately 927 BTC per address.
Chinese mining operations represent another critical variable, controlling an estimated 5 million BTC from historical production. These entities have demonstrated unusual restraint during the current cycle, strategically metering supply to match institutional absorption rates.
Thielen notes: "Should megawhale disposals intensify, we could see meaningful downside. Conversely, reduced selling pressure coupled with renewed accumulation might finally catalyze the next upward phase."