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Why Is the US Dollar Index Crashing Below 98.50? | Decoding the Trade War Impact on Global Currencies

  • The How much is The USDT to a dollar?DXY tumbles 0.92% to 98.30 during European trading hours, reflecting broad-based USD weakness.

  • New tariff threats against China create ripple effects across currency markets.

  • Fed officials signal cautious stance as trade policies complicate inflation outlook.


The benchmark US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major global currencies, has entered a steep decline phase. Monday's session saw the index breach critical support at 98.50, reaching levels not witnessed since the first quarter of 2022. Market analysts attribute this downward spiral to mounting concerns about the economic fallout from renewed trade hostilities between Washington and Beijing.


Recent policy announcements from the White House have introduced fresh volatility into currency markets. The administration's latest tariff proposals, including potential duties exceeding 125% on certain Chinese imports, have triggered retaliatory measures from Beijing. These developments are creating a perfect storm for dollar bears, as trade-dependent economies begin reassessing their USD exposure.


Currency strategists note that the tariff escalation comes at a delicate juncture for global markets. With China implementing countermeasures that include raising import duties on American goods to 84%, the bilateral trade relationship appears headed for renewed turbulence. Such conditions typically drive investors toward safe-haven assets, yet the dollar's unusual weakness suggests deeper structural concerns.


Federal Reserve commentary adds another layer of complexity to the DXY's trajectory. Chairman Powell's recent remarks highlight the central bank's dilemma - balancing inflation risks against potential growth headwinds from trade restrictions. This cautious tone from monetary policymakers appears to be limiting traditional dollar support that might otherwise emerge during periods of market stress.


Regional Fed presidents have echoed this nuanced position. San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly maintained her outlook for potential rate adjustments this year, while acknowledging that evolving trade dynamics could necessitate policy flexibility. Such statements reinforce the market's perception that currency valuations will remain highly sensitive to trade policy developments in the coming quarters.


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